Can Ind and Pak Peacefully Coexist

Let me start with a story that can relate well with the topic. Imagine countries that indulged in large scale and highly destructive war. Countries are fighting with each other, invading lands of other countries, millions lost their lives, industries and countries are on the knees as blood thirsty war had destroyed everything. And finally one group surrendered. But after this they decided to setup a union to avoid frequent and bloody wars. Within few years they established community for coal and steel, main wealth of the industrialized countries, with the belief that trade will bring the peace in the region and they succeeded.

Yes you are right if you had guessed that I am talking about European Union. Germany fought against France in the war but today these two countries takes decision together in EU.

Global trends report published every four years since 1997. Their task is to key trends and uncertainties that will shape the strategic environment for the United States. This provides an analytical framework for policy makers. Just in case you want to know how accurate their report is, in last report they predicted that world will suffer from pandemic and economies will tumble by 2020. Thats exactly what we are seeing today. With four years report they also have report about world in 2040, read more on their official website. So, lets get to the point of this post. In the latest report they predicted that India and Pakistan may stumble into a large-scale war that neither side wants.

Report mentions more then one reason that might lead to war in the region.

As former president Trump initiated the process to exit Afghanistan and President Biden recently declared that US will withdraw all US forces by Sept 11, 2021. This will have significant consequences across the region, particularly in India and Pakistan. As we know there is already a tussle between Taliban and democratically elected government to capture power. And as US forces will leave, it will generate security vacuum that may result in civil war. This may accelerate political tensions and sharpen the India-Pakistan rivalry by strengthening longstanding judgments about covert warfare in India. Basically abrupt exit of US forces from Afghanistan will be a major factor.

This is most probable reason for the war to begin. Report specifically mentions that there may be large terrorist attack in major city of India. This left Indian government with no other option than to retaliate. A full-scale war could inflict damage that would have economic and political consequences for years mentions report.

For years India has never utilized its share of water in Indus water treaty. Recently India started constructing major dams to utilize this resource properly for the betterment of her citizens. As UNDP also predicted that Pakistan could face absolute water scarcity by 2025. That is huge. The term may not be able to measure the gravity of the situation. But it will create the condition where Pakistan has to start a war to divert the attention. As the sources also suggest Pakistan govt had not worked properly to manage water resource in their country.

War has lasting impact on both sides. No matter which country won or loose. Numbers of soldiers has to give supreme sacrifice for their country, all industrial activities stops suddenly and available resources are diverted to war. War pushes a country at-least 10-20 years back in all fields irrespective of you loose or win. You may say that this is not true for US after world war 2. But there is reason for this, war was never fought on the soil of main-land US, war was fought in the Europe and some parts of Asia.

Now lets see what steps can be taken. India tried its level best even after war. Former PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee himself visited Pakistan to mark the inauguration of bus service, PM Modi made surprise visit to Pakistan, We tried to revive SAARC during COVID. There are several examples before that too. But every time India got a war or terror attack in return. John F. Keneddy once said that

This fits perfectly in this case. What ever we say, truth is that after freedom Pakistan is never able to get over the obsession of Kashmir. Had they done so, South Asia would have reached great heights today. Pakistan has a great advantage of having very important geo political position. Both US and Russia wanted to have a military base during the cold war. They offered the same offer to India too. But we denied and choose to remain non aligned. But Pakistan didn't and by allowing to build some country a military base on your land, you earned a lot of diplomatic currency, which you can use the way you want. Pakistan could have used it to pressurize US to tell their industrialists to setup offices in Pakistan, and generate employment. Or for any good cause and development of infrastructure in their country. But they used that currency only to raise Kashmir issue on every single stage. They succeeded to some level but today US has to partner with India to counter China in the region. Classic example of how to use rivalry for the benefits are countries in the Indian Ocean region like SL, Maldives, Seychelles, etc. Every other day we are used to hear news of some investment from China, India or some western countries. They are taking maximum benefit of their geo political position. Pakistan remains under great pressure from its local parties too. Lets see how.

Pakistan consider Turkey, Malaysia and China as its friends. They helped Pakistan in raising Kashmir issue in one or two UN meet too. And here is the bitter fact. Turkey had trade relations with Israel and is growing, also in some way Turkey's tourism industry depends on India. Similarly Malaysia enjoys trade relations with India and exports a huge chunk of palm to India. But Pakistan under domestic pressure had never established a diplomatic relation with Israel and blocked trade with India. Here you may say that even India has to vote against Sri Lanka in UNHRC due to domestic pressure. It is true, but we have to vote against SL on humanitarian ground too, and that pressure never compelled us to cut all relations. Whereas recently Pakistan govt has to accept the proposal to hold talk with TLP which may lead to cut relations with very important European country France and huge damage too, because generally other European countries tend to follow the leads of France and Germany.

Here is the list of steps required for the bright South Asia. First step for Pakistan is of course to put the thought of destabilizing India aside and accept the reality. Indian govt had done what they want to do in J&K, and is never going to revert no matter what. There are lots of problems to address but together we can. Good thing is recently their foreign minister accepted that article 370 is India's internal matter, not only that he further added that "There is no option other than dialogue. These are two nuclear powers with outstanding issues which need to be resolved either today, tomorrow, or the day after. War is not an option. War will be suicidal". After all it remains to see how much they follow.

1. Terrorism - Terrorism had done enough damage, now it is the time for Pakistan to take stricter actions against it. Till the terrorism continues there is no point in discussing peace. This is first and very important step to proceed further and follow next steps. This is one of the reason mentioned in report that may lead to large scale war.
2. Afghanistan Peace Deal - If US is not able to reach on some kind of agreement with Taliban and Afghanistan govt, and take abrupt exit. Then leaders of India, Pakistan and Afghanistan has to seat together and make sure that no other country can further interfere. I think that how Afghanistan issue turns out in the future will decide the fate of India-Pakistan relations too.
3. Trade - Pakistan can provide direct access to central Asia, middle-east Asia and further to Europe, which it has blocked for years. It is benefitting no one. Opening the route can benefit Pakistan along with all the countries in South Asia. Bangladesh is the excellent example of how to use cheap cotton supplies from India and convert it to finished good. They developed the textile industry in this way. Pakistan also had this opportunity before India completes all it mega textile plant and start consuming most of the cotton supplies. South Asia together can become the textile hub of the world. Similarly there are many other area of cooperation. To start trade current Pak govt may have to face a huge pressure from local parties but for the greater good they have to face it and overcome it.
4. Tourism - There is opportunity for tourism industry to flourish too. There are historically important sites of all the religions in the area, once the issue of terrorism resolves this is the industry to explore.
5. Water Resource - Knowing that water is the most important resource, All south asian countries can come together for better management. With this, disaster management is another area which can improve relations. India and Pakistan every year almost suffers the same kind of natural disasters like earth quakes, locusts attack, etc. Both countries can come together to benefit large population.

Bangladesh can serve as the role model of development for Pakistan. And internally may be Pakistan knows that India is the most trustable partner they can afford. Unlike China, India will not trap them in debt crisis.

South Asian countries can form the union like European countries came together after world war or can also take forward the already existing grouping SAARC. Fight the issues of hunger, poverty together. Collaborate with each other on important sectors like space. Use ISA for green energy, promoting the idea of One Sun, One World, One Grid. Make sure that countries of this region gradually move forward in the rankings of HDI, research, etc. Yes, the region is a diverse politically fragmented but at the same time with the immense potential of production and utilization. If Europe governed the 19th century, US 20th century then 21 century belongs to Asia. And to accomplish this height, South Asia(India, Pakistan, Bangladesh Nepal, Bhutan, SL and Maldives) has very important role to play. The global economic order is poised to change by 2050 as six of the seven largest economies in the world are projected to be Asian economies led by countries like India and Indonesia, but this is only possible if Asia remains united and cooperates. I take your leave on this positive note. Do share your ideas and what do you think about this report and unity in Asia with me on twitter.